The best teams should create an attack (Thursday, February 10)

Lightning vs avalanche odds

Chances of Lightning +108
Avalanche odds -120
More less 6.5
Time 9 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest NHL odds here.

Colorado saw its 18-game home win streak shattered by the Coyotes, but has the chance to bounce back here with a big home win over the Lightning.

This game could be a preview of the Stanley Cup Finals and should be a great contest. Who has the upper hand?

Lightning remains dominant

The Lightning continued to dominate in their last 12 games, going 9-2-1 and a league-leading 58.51 xGF% in that span, and producing plenty of offense with 4.0 goals per game during this period.

Despite the results, there’s been a bit of an offensive lull over the past three games as the Lightning skated without Nikita Kucherov’s MVP-level play. But everything indicates that Kucherov should be back on Thursday after returning to training on Wednesday.

Kucherov has 17 points in just 11 games this season, and while Tampa’s depth certainly allows them to succeed without Kucherov — as we’ve seen much of last year and this season — the Lightning are capable of going through. into top gear offensively with the hugely talented Russian in the lineup. The numerical advantage unit, which crosses Kucherov on the half-wall, promises to be particularly more dangerous with its presence in the alignment.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has flourished again this season and should take the start of this great competition. He has stopped 0.922% of shots against a +17.4 goals saved above the expected rating in the 36 games played this season.

Avalanche offense is tough to beat

The Avalanche, preseason favorites for the Stanley Cup, remain exactly halfway through the regular season, and it’s no surprise this roster has come out and scored a ridiculous number of goals with the talent within reach. tomorrow.

What was surprising was the utterly absurd production seen by Nazem Kadri, which more than helped cover the loss of Nathan Mackinnon, who missed 13 contests and will sit out Thursday.

The Avs defense is very active in the offensive zone and excellent at pushing play on the ice, and the extremely talented line of Cale Makar, Devon Toews and Samuel Girard have amassed 102 points this season.

The Avs clearly have talent, and it’s no surprise to see them lead the league with 4.09 goals per game. That production has remained steady over the past month at 4.0 goals per game with a rating of 3.37 xGF/60.

Darcy Kuemper is expected to start for the Avs, and he’s really stabilized after a rocky start, now holding a .915 save percentage with a +9.9 GAs above expected rating throughout. 31 games this season.

Lightning-Avalanche Pick

In 36 games, the Avalanche averaged a combined 7.25 goals in their games, with 27 of those games reaching 6 or more.

Sadly, this game has already gone from 6 to 6.5 since opening on most sites, but we still have enough value to push that number to +100 to support the obvious play here, especially since Tampa isn’t a likely candidate to create a well below average total here.

In Colorado’s last 11 games against playoff-bound clubs, the game total increases even more, averaging 7.72 per game with only one game ending below 6.

I think there’s a logical causality to this upward trend – this Avalanche group by no means defended too well – and the stronger clubs were able to put together some good results. offense and force them to put on big offensive nights for wins.

Tampa is an above average club defensively and has Vasilevskiy in goal, but I still think we should see Colorado’s ridiculous wealth of offensive talent, both on offense and defense, able to find another solid outing here, even short Mackinnon.

It also seems unlikely that Colorado can completely shut down a very talented Tampa Bay group offensively, and I think that makes for a good place to look for a high-scoring deal in what should be a terrific game.

Take: Over 6.5 +100, play down to -120

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Robert M. Larson