Capitals vs Lightning Picks, Predictions and Odds Tonight

Washington defeated Tampa Bay last week and now those teams will meet again. With Kuemper playing stellar hockey to start the year and the Caps recovering coins, our NHL betting picks see the Bolts struggling to score early.

Last Updated: November 13, 2022 11:07 a.m. ET
Reading time: 4 minutes

We have an Eastern Conference tilt with the Tampa Bay Lightning of the Atlantic Division hosting the Washington Capitals of the Metropolitan Division. These two teams met just two nights ago as Washington took a 5-1 win at home.

Will Washington take care of business again or can the Bolts get revenge at home? Find out in our NHL free betting predictions and picks for Capitals vs. Lightning on Sunday, Nov. 13.

Capitals vs Lightning best odds

Capitals vs. Lightning Picks and Predictions

Tampa Bay’s offense didn’t produce much offense in Friday’s 5-1 loss, especially early on as it failed to find the back of the net for the first 50 minutes of the game. Slow starts were a common theme for this Flash team recently as they have failed to score in the first half in three of their last five games.

This trend is expected to continue Sunday night as a goalkeeper Darcy Kuemper should take the fold for Washington. Despite leaving Colorado in the offseason, Kuemper hasn’t missed a beat and been terrific for the Uppercase letters.

Through 12 starts this season, the Washington goaltender has a 0.920 SV % and a 2.35 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks eighth in goals saved over expectations per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

The defense in front of Kuemper has been solid lately, especially early in games, as opposing teams have failed to score in the first frame in each of Washington’s last five games. Remarkably, this team stayed strong despite a litany of injuries throughout training.

However, that blue line should be fully healthy for the first time in weeks as defenders. John Carlson came back on Friday when Dmitry Orlov practiced Saturday and should be good to go Sunday night. The Capitals’ defense and goaltenders have held up well despite the time lost from these two guys and will only get better when they return.

my best bet: Lightning first period Less than 0.5 (+165 at DraftKings)

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Capitals vs. Lightning moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Caps in this game at more money, although their offense is too much of a concern. At 5-5 this season, Washington ranks only 24th in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60).

While his defense continues to recover key elements, the attack is still crippled by injuries. TJ Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson are all going to miss this contest, which is a huge amount of firepower to make up for.

In fact, this club have scored two goals or less in five of their last seven games. With the inconsistent offensive production and injury count, the Caps aren’t big enough to sustain this contest.

Capitals vs. Lightning Over/Under Analysis

I would rather go for the Under, even if I don’t necessarily trust the current form of goalkeeper Andrei Vasilevsky. The Tampa Bay goaltender and future Hall of Famer will no doubt find out as the season progresses, so a slow start to the campaign is not an indictment of his elite status or where he will end up this season.

That being said, he has allowed three or more goals in six straight starts, including five in Friday’s loss to the Capitals. In 10 starts this season, Vasilevskiy is 4-5-1 with a 0.901 SV % and a 3.11 GAA.

While it remains to be seen if this is the game where he turns things around, his faltering play to start the season and his past starts against the Capitals are too much of a concern to take bets under.

Capitals vs Lightning betting trend you need to know

Opposing teams have failed to score in the first period in each of Washington’s last five games. find more NHL Betting Trends for Capitals vs. Lightning.

Capitals vs. Lightning game information

Location: Amalie Arena, St. Petersburg, Florida
Date: Sunday, November 13, 2022
Puck toss: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Capitals vs Lightning key injuries

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Robert M. Larson